2022 was no doubt a tough year for the fund. The fast/extreme moves during H1 were more than we anticipated. However, once we recognized that these moves were common, we began factoring them into our models. This came in two major updates:
1.) May Update: This update improved our overall market timing.
2.) Sep Update: Factored in fast/deep moves mainly around economic data releases and FOMC-related events.
The following graph best represents the improvements made throughout 2022. These improvements resulted from our two algo updates in May and Sep, along with smaller, incremental updates along the way. After each of the two algo implementations, there was some lag before improvements kicked in. But you can see the effects going from the first half of the year into the second.
In Feb 2023, we had another major algo update. This implementation is an improvement in single stock timing, similar to our May algo update. The Feb 2023 update has new benefits that the May index-level update can also take advantage of.
Our thesis is to continually improve. Smaller updates are always being implemented as we refine our models. Eventually, changes are large enough that we release a larger algo update. These updates are also communicated to our investors.